`Midnight shifts may be overstaffed on New Year’s Eve`

By Michael Roknick
Herald Business Editor

When champagne corks are popping with wild abandon midnight Friday, Randy Coleman will be at home snuggling with close companions — two phones, a beeper and a computer.

As the Mercer County manager for Pennsylvania Power Co., Coleman has known for more than a year he would be working as the new millennium was being ushered in. His home will serve as mission control in case Y2K rears its head.

Under a federal mandate utilities are required to have contingency plans should a computer glitch surface on Jan. 1. Penn-Power, along with other electrical, gas and water , National Fuel Gas Distribution Co., Bell Atlantic Corp. and others will have extra manpower on hand in case computers cause outages.

The Y2K problem, which stands for year 2000, exists because some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year could interpret 2000 as 1900. That could cause computers to shut down and lead to power outages, water system and billing problems.

Nationally, experts predict the effects from the Y2K problem will resemble scattered, regional failures similar to those experienced during a bad storm rather than a nationwide catastrophe. Somewhere in Penn Power’s service area on Saturday, Coleman predicts there likely will be an electrical outage — just like any other day. An accident such as a car slamming into a utility pole or downed lines from weather conditions will be the likely culprits, he said.

“Our worst fear is not related to outages,’’ Coleman said. “Any outage we can manage, we’re confident of that. It’s that customers receive timely and accurate information,’’ pop below graf out please

Throughout Friday night and early Saturday morning Penn Power and its owner, FirstEnergy, will be feeding TV, radio, newspapers, and 911 centers information about major local outages. Information such as where the outage occurred and why will be given to the media to relieve jittery public nerves.

Staff will be beefed up Friday and Saturday night at Penn Power’s New Castle headquarters and at the FirstEnergy regional dispatch office in Youngstown.

In addition, employees will be positioned at strategic locations such as major electrical stations should anything go amiss.

The buzz phrase this week among utilities is “Y2K OK.’’ In other words, utilities have adjusted or updated their computer systems

“We’re ready,’’ said Nancy Taylor, an NFG spokesman. “This is something we’ve been working on for a number of years. We don’t think any of our customers will experience any interruptions.’’ But NFG will have extra staff at its phone center Friday night and Saturday morning to handle any increased phone volume. Also, extra staff will be posted at sites throughout NFG’s northwestern Pennsylvania service territory as a precaution.

Sprint is boosting its manpower on New Year’s Eve at most of its locations, said Stephanie Meisse, a Sprint spokeswoman. A concern for Sprint and other phone companies is that consumers will pick up the phone on New Year’s day just to see if they have a dial tone.

“If a large number of people pickigation, warned companies not to declare victory right away. Such statements, he said, could come back to haunt them.

Still, New Year’s Day weekend will be a peak period for Y2K problems, and most major companies and government agencies will be watching their systems closely. John Koskinen, President Clinton’s top Y2K adviser, will preside over a $50 million crisis center built for this weekend. If there are any problems involving embedded chips that control power plants and other major equipment, Koskinen said, they would most likely strike around Jan. 1.

Beyond that, most glitches will probably be administrative, causing inconveniences such as incorrect billing — but no catastrophe. And they’ll be more manageable because they won’t hit all at once.

The government has identified three crucial time periods:

Dec. 31, when the rest of the world celebrates the new year;

Jan. 1, when the new year arrives in the United States; and

Jan. 3, the first business day, when systems experience peak usage.

Koskinen’s group will also look for trouble on Feb. 29, because some computers might not recognize 2000 as a leap year. Even Dec. 31, 2000, could be problematic because some computers might not be expecting 366 days next year.

The Y2K problem stems from a long-standing practice of using only two digits to represent a year in computer programs and embedded chips. Left uncorrected, “00” might appear as 1900, throwing off systems that control power, phones and billing.

In an AP telephone poll of 1,010 people, taken Dec. 15-19, the most frequently mentioned concern was the power supply, mentioned by a third, followed by banking and financial services, the transportation system, phone systems and food distribution. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Jan. 1 is not necessarily the first time a computer will encounter 2000, and some problems already have appeared.

A few years ago, some merchants began having trouble with credit cards expiring in 2000. In early October, some federal computers needed repair because Oct. 1 starts the federal fiscal year. And in a twist from Maine, model 2000 cars were incorrectly marked horseless carriages — the designation that the state uses for pre-1916 vintage vehicles.

Notices with 1900, not 2000, also have come from banks, courts and at least one college. Some problems also occurred during Y2K testing, or as Y2K fixes introduced new errors. The National Federation of Independent Business cites a recent survey that Y2K already hit one in 20 small businesses. Most glitches were fixed quickly, the federation said.

According to the Gartner Group, 30 percent of all failures will have occurred before 2000. And problems, growing steadily each quarter, will peak early in the new year. But they won’t completely disappear until after 2001.

“Systems only fail when transactions are run,” said Lou Marcoccio, Gartner’s research director. For example, glitches may arise when businesses finish their first billing cycle of the new year. That could happen anytime in January for monthly billing, or later for less frequent billing. Some computers will also have to generate monthly, quarterly and annual reports, leaving room for problems later in the year.

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