Published Sunday, September 22, 2002
By Larissa Theodore
Herald Staff Writer
Dairyman Bill Beck has been farming 70 acres in Pulaski Township for about 20 years.
Beck grows his own corn for silage to feed his 30 head of cattle and in early September began chopping and using his supply. He said he considers the feed ration -- the rate for feed -- from the last few years to be really good.
But for next year, he said, he's planted a little extra "just in case."
"It hasn't really hit us completely yet but they say corn prices will be almost double next year," he said.
That's because heavy rain in May and early June, followed by a hot dry summer, could force dairy farmers -- who normally grow their own corn and hay for feed -- to buy corn for silage next year, said Tim Kelly, owner of Olde Country Feed and Hardware in New Wilmington.
Kelly said feed sales this year have remained the same as last year. However, he's expecting that to change next summer.
"We haven't seen the effects of the drought in the feed business yet, but we will next year at this time," he said. "It's been a dry season and a dry hot summer."
The weather was worse elsewhere in Pennsylvania.
Marlene and Rodney Reese have raised dairy cattle for decades near Port Matilda, west of State College in Centre County. But this year they're buying corn for silage.
Until this year, the Reeses had always grown enough corn and hay to feed their cattle, but the rainy spring and the drought that followed have forced them to buy their feed.
"We're in the process of buying silage from other farms in the hope of getting enough corn silage to do for the year," Marlene Reese said recently.
With milk prices depressed from oversupply and feed prices rising, dairy farmers could be in for a rough year.
Ken Bailey, a dairy economist and associate professor of agricultural economics at Penn State, called it "a classic, a very unfortunate, price-cost squeeze. And what's going to happen is a lot of people are going to be squeezed out of the marketplace."
Dan Capstick, deputy state statistician for the Pennsylvania Agricultural Statistics Service, said Friday that this year's corn harvest is expected to average 72 bushels an acre, down from last year's average of 98 bushels. Soybean yields are also expected to drop to 28 bushels per acre from last year's average of 35 bushels an acre.
"It's because we had a shaky spring," Beck explained.
Another problem for dairymen may be depressed prices because of an oversupply of milk, said Dr. David Baver, veterinarian and Mercer County Cooperative Extension agent.
He said lower milk prices will definitely hurt producers because, for the vast majority of Mercer County dairy farmers, the price of milk is lower than the cost to produce it.
He explained that in the last few years, milk prices reached record highs, and farmers geared up to produce more. Meanwhile, the economy changed and the demand for dairy products isn't as high as anticipated.
Adding flame to fuel is the drought, which puts an even tighter squeeze on the dairy industry, Baver said.
Because of weather problems, many farmers either didn't plant or reduced their acreage this year, meaning farmers may see higher feed grain prices. Traditionally by August, farmers know if there's going to be a corn shortage, but next year that could change to early July, Kelly said. Farmers haven't begun to harvest yet this year, so any problems they have now will carry over to next year.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service said Friday that 38 percent of Pennsylvania's corn conditions last week were very poor, and 29 percent were poor; 25 percent of soybean yields were reported very poor and 27 percent poor.
The situation in hayfields was worse, with 55 percent having very poor pasture conditions, and 31 percent being poor.
Thankfully, Mercer County wasn't nearly as affected as other parts of the state. Baver said.
"Mercer County is probably the garden spot of Pennsylvania, compared to the others when it comes to crops. That's not to say we weren't affected, but northern Pennsylvania fared better than the rest of the state. We weren't affected as severely."
In central Pennsylvania Mrs. Reese said, some fields where they were growing corn "were a 100 percent loss." First came the heavy rains of May and early June, which delayed planting in some fields and washed out seed planted in others. Then came the drought, which dried up what corn did grow. "It's been kind of a double whammy," she said.
Kelly said feed sales are also affected by weather.
"Animals don't eat as much when it's hot," he said. "Feed sales go down when livestock production is down. Livestock production is related to feed consumption and milk production. It's a direct correlation."
Beck said he expects this year's problems will take an unpleasant toll on farmers' pocketbooks. "They don't expect it to be favorable this year, which puts a squeeze on our financial situation," he said.
"I'll have enough silage (next year), but we'll be paying more for our grain mix."
The Associated Press contributed to this story.