Published Thursday, November 7, 2002
concern of voters
yields surprises
Herald Copy Editor
An exit poll of Mercer County voters conducted Tuesday provides a rough sketch of local political thinking, which in some areas defies conventional wisdom.
While politicians locally and across the state said voters are crying out for relief from ever-increasing property taxes, local voters pegged the area's economic situation of greatest significance when casting their votes for governor.
Property taxes came in fourth, after health care and improving public schools and before gun policy. Perhaps surprisingly, abortion was the least significant.
Asked what options they would prefer to reform property taxes, most of those polled said they were undecided. Of those who had an opinion, sales taxes were the most popular alternative, followed by no change in tax policy or increasing state and local income taxes.
"There is zero consensus on what to do," said Dr. Michael Coulter, professor of political science at Grove City College.
Coulter sent 50 students from his Political Science 101 classes to 16 polling places across the county Tuesday to find out what was on voters' minds as they cast ballots for governor, Congress and the state Legislature.
Coulter said he noticed several "surprising" things when he sifted through the results Wednesday.
Among them:
» A majority of Catholic voters (57 percent) supported Democrat Ed Rendell in the governor's race, despite Republican Mike Fisher's attempts to court his fellow Catholics with direct mailings and phone bank calls detailing Rendell's support for abortion and opposition to school choice. Fifty-six percent of those who attend church regularly -- four times a month for the poll's purposes -- backed Fisher.
» Nearly 66 percent of National Rifle Association members backed Fisher, though 30 percent said they voted for Rendell, who backs a plan to limit handgun purchases to one a month. "That any NRA member would vote for Rendell is surprising," Coulter said. Fisher won among gun owners, "but not big," according to Coulter.
» There was no "significant pattern" when votes and income were contrasted in the survey, though Rendell pulled in 50 percent of the over $100,000 vote and Fisher did well with lower-income voters. The finding upends the traditional wisdom that Democrats appeal to working-class voters and Republicans to upper-income voters, Coulter said.
» Rendell did better among those who voted for Al Gore in 2000 (77 percent) than Fisher did among Bush voters (72 percent).
Coulter said he thought the difference between voters in Tuesday's election and the 2000 presidential election, for which his class also conducted an exit poll, was the most interesting finding.
"The Republicans represent more votes this time around," he said. In 2000, Gore won Mercer County with 50 percent of the vote to Bush's 48 percent. This year, Coulter said, those Gore voters stayed home, perhaps costing Rendell the county. Of the Republicans who turned out this time, Coulter said they were slightly older and slightly more religious.
Fifty percent of the county's registered voters are Democrats; 41 percent are Republicans.
Other results of the poll included:
» County voters are divided right down the middle over going to war with Iraq, with one-third in favor, one-third against and one-third undecided.
» Fifty percent of county voters split their ticket, voting for candidates of both major parties. Republicans were more likely to vote a straight party ticket.
» Union voters favored Rendell, with 60 percent saying they voted for the Democrat despite criticism from labor unions of his treatment of union workers in Philadelphia.
» White voters were pretty evenly divided between Fisher and Rendell. Black voters overwhelmingly (73 percent) backed Rendell.
» Thirty-three percent of those who voted for Republican state Sen. Robert D. "Bob" Robbins voted for Rendell.
» Fisher did slightly better among men, 50 to 42 percent.
The poll of 480 voters had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Coulter said his students, who got a hands-on lesson in political science research methods, were well-received at county polls. "I thank all of those who took time to fill out surveys ... the students had a great time out there in the county," Coulter said.
Last year, Coulter's students conducted a poll on Shenango Valley residents' attitudes toward a possible merger. The results were also printed in The Herald.
You can e-mail Herald Copy Editor Nick Hildebrand at: nhildebrand@sharonherald.com